A Tech Maturity Framework for Anticipating Market Shifts

Reading tech evolution is critical. This tech maturity framework for market shifts helps investors anticipate readiness before the market moves.

The language of technology moves faster than the technology itself. Every month a new term captures attention, whether it’s quantum, spatial, synthetic, generative, or something else altogether. Some of these breakthroughs reshape markets, while others fade as the technologies that underpin them drift back into research.

For investors, the hardest question is not what to follow but when to take it seriously. Commercial traction is easy to anticipate, but by the time it appears, most of the big return has already gone. The opportunity lies in reading when technology is about to move.

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The Onion Model, a Tech Maturity Framework for Market Shifts

Innovation rarely moves in a straight line from lab to market. Introducing 'The Onion Model' which sees innovation as a series of expanding layers that turn discovery into proof, then traction, then scale.

At the centre lies R&D, surrounded by Deep Tech, Emerging, and Adopted technologies. The outer layer, Ubiquitous, forms the layer where innovation slows down.

For investors, the middle layers matter most because this is where engineering becomes product, and product begins to scale.

What follows is a break down of the 5 layers.

1. R&D – The Scientific Core

R&D is the origin of every technological wave. It is curiosity-driven, aimed at proving principles rather than products.

Signals the Layer Is About to Move

• Experiments move from theory to demonstration

• Findings are verified outside the originating lab

• Interdisciplinary collaboration begins between science and engineering

• Early patents or repeatable methods appear

Investor Interpretation

The key question is feasibility. Once experiments are taken outside the lab, R&D begins to move into Deep Tech, where long-term potential starts to become visible.

2. Deep Tech – The Innovators’ Layer

Deep Tech is where discovery becomes engineering. Teams focus on proving that systems can work reliably outside controlled environments.

Example: Mid-air haptics sits here today. The underlying science has moved from research to engineered prototypes, but large-scale productisation is still ahead.

Signals the Layer Is About to Move

• Experiments are repeatable and performance improves

• The team adds engineers or delivery specialists

• Pilot partners or early test customers appear

• Reliability becomes the baseline rather than the breakthrough

Investor Interpretation

This is when feasibility becomes repeatability. Technical risk falls while engineering risk rises. Early traction may appear, but the key signal is reliability. Investors who see this shift early are recognising readiness before the market does.

Related reading: “Ship Real Value” explores how to recognise when technical progress starts creating measurable customer value.

3. Emerging Tech – The Early Adopters’ Layer

Emerging technologies turn feasibility into viability. Products start to reach customers, and categories begin to form.

Example: Smart glasses sit here today. They have moved past novelty into practical use cases, but as regulation and shared design principles take shape, the outsized returns are already diminishing.

Signals the Layer Is About to Move

• Reliability is consistent across multiple environments

• Paying customers and recurring pilots appear

• Ecosystems, standards, or regulation begin to form

• Early incumbents emerge through partnerships or acquisitions

Investor Interpretation

This is the most investable layer. Market risk replaces technical risk, and traction becomes visible. The opportunity lies in recognising which use cases show repeatable value before the market overprices them.

4. Adopted Tech – The Early Majority Layer

Adopted technologies operate within mature frameworks. Regulation, standardisation, and shared design principles have taken hold. Companies now compete on execution, brand, and incremental innovation rather than breakthrough capability.

Example: The current generation of VR and AR devices is entering this stage, where common standards and design patterns are forming around comfort, interaction, and developer ecosystems.

Signals the Layer Is About to Move

• Regulation and compliance shape the market

• Shared design standards reduce fragmentation

• Margins shift from innovation to efficiency

• Competitive advantage comes from delivery and distribution

Investor Interpretation

Returns are now operational, not scientific. This is the layer for scale investors and consolidators, not early-stage venture.

5. Ubiquitous and Mature – The Established Foundation

Technologies at this stage are embedded and expected. Innovation at this layer is smaller increments as areas of differentiation are hard fought.

Example: Smartphones are the clearest case. Once revolutionary, they now differ mainly in user experience, ecosystem integration, or marginal performance gains.

Signals the Layer Is About to Move

• Standardisation creates predictability and makes true differentiation harder

• The technology becomes “boring,” signalling stability rather than novelty

• Companies redirect R&D investment into the next disruptive area while maintaining predictable income from existing products

• Customer expectations shift from innovation to seamless experience

Investor Interpretation

Returns stabilise, but the opportunity shifts upstream. This is where investors start looking for the next layer of R&D being funded by mature incumbents. Boredom in one market is often the prelude to invention in another.

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Putting It Together

In product design, teams usually begin with desirability, then test viability, and finally check feasibility. This order ensures products are built around what people want before deciding whether they can be made, reducing the risk of building the wrong thing.

However, The Onion Model shows that technology often evolves in the opposite direction. Technology itself usually starts by proving feasibility, then viability, then desirability.

I explore this contrast between the DVF approach and the Onion Model in Using a Story to Build a Product, which shows how narrative clarity helps teams align around progress. For a real-world example of how that shift plays out, Turning Deep Tech Innovation Into Product-Market Fit examines one company’s journey from technical excellence to market adoption.

This progression through the Onion layers reveals how value builds outward from proof to product to permanence.

Feasibility dominates the inner layers.

R&D and Deep Tech prove that something can be built and made to work reliably.

Viability emerges in the middle layers.

Emerging and Adopted technologies prove that people will pay and that markets can scale.

Desirability defines the outer layers.

Mature technologies become expected infrastructure, setting the stage for the next wave of discovery.

Understanding where a technology sits within the Onion helps investors decide when the best time to invest is.

Executive Summary

• The Onion Model is a tech maturity framework for market shifts that views technology as layers of maturity, not steps in a pipeline.

• The best balance of risk and reward sits where Deep Tech meets Emerging Tech, because this is when feasibility becomes viability.

• Each layer has signals that show when progress is about to become scale.

• Technologies evolve from feasibility to viability to desirability, which is the opposite of product design best practices.

• The Onion Model is a framework that helps tech investors recognise these transitions so they can act before the market explodes.

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If you want to understand where deep-tech discoveries are turning into investable products and how to spot those shifts early, let’s talk. I help investors and innovation leaders apply this tech maturity framework for market shifts to interpret product maturity before it appears in the data. Reach out at info@crwburgess.com.